Re: [討論] 4/22強化第三劑疫苗接種 - 健身
By Ula
at 2022-04-16T12:59
at 2022-04-16T12:59
Table of Contents
基本上我分析目前事情的發展可能如下
1.政府無預警的公告第3劑限制政策,造成健身業跟旅行業強力反彈,健身業算小眾市場,政府本來就管你去死,然而重點在於旅行業反彈,隨便一個團只要有老人,必然就有可能沒打滿3劑,而這種情況通常是整團的單直接退,直接衝擊的是相關旅宿業者跟餐廳業者,目前可觀察的退單數已經開始增加,後續造成的產業衝擊未知,尤其是旅宿相關族群才開始起漲,勢必造成政府很大的壓力,只能說cdc決策往往都缺乏深謀遠慮
2.台灣鄰近過韓國已經全面取消管制,cdc也表明不排除跟進,一般來說台灣的中央政策一定都會拿鄰近各國相同經濟體來做參考,韓國都解封了,我判斷東亞各國會陸續跟進
3.選前行情:大家都知道年底選戰正式開打,因此dpp勢必要年中就要開始布局相關政策,而搭配cdc說的暑假可能會開放來講,我評估極有可能在第3季就有更進一步的解封政策,因為屆時時鐘也要面臨是否卸任指揮官專心拼選戰的選擇,然後一個大前提,在卸任之前,防疫政策勢必要做出一個結案或結果,我們相信那個結論就是解封,並且直接帶動選戰利多
綜合各方面的分析,我個人是覺得目前這個第3劑政策是極有可能白海豚轉彎的,因此我個人選擇是暫時不會急著去打第3劑,畢竟目前疫苗選擇非常少,總不可能去吃屎,然後4/22短期來講cdc還是有可能硬幹,所以屆時我會直接跟健身房解約,其實我預計到時會有非常多消費糾紛,不過我們這些小眾就是要利用這點去給予業者的壓力,進而轉化成政府的壓力,直接促使解封政策進一步的提早
要不要打疫苗是個人選擇,以上我只是覺得過不了多久就會解封(第3劑政策直接轉彎)的分析,要不要急於現在打疫苗,請大家自行判斷
-----
Sent from JPTT on my Samsung SM-G9860.
--
1.政府無預警的公告第3劑限制政策,造成健身業跟旅行業強力反彈,健身業算小眾市場,政府本來就管你去死,然而重點在於旅行業反彈,隨便一個團只要有老人,必然就有可能沒打滿3劑,而這種情況通常是整團的單直接退,直接衝擊的是相關旅宿業者跟餐廳業者,目前可觀察的退單數已經開始增加,後續造成的產業衝擊未知,尤其是旅宿相關族群才開始起漲,勢必造成政府很大的壓力,只能說cdc決策往往都缺乏深謀遠慮
2.台灣鄰近過韓國已經全面取消管制,cdc也表明不排除跟進,一般來說台灣的中央政策一定都會拿鄰近各國相同經濟體來做參考,韓國都解封了,我判斷東亞各國會陸續跟進
3.選前行情:大家都知道年底選戰正式開打,因此dpp勢必要年中就要開始布局相關政策,而搭配cdc說的暑假可能會開放來講,我評估極有可能在第3季就有更進一步的解封政策,因為屆時時鐘也要面臨是否卸任指揮官專心拼選戰的選擇,然後一個大前提,在卸任之前,防疫政策勢必要做出一個結案或結果,我們相信那個結論就是解封,並且直接帶動選戰利多
綜合各方面的分析,我個人是覺得目前這個第3劑政策是極有可能白海豚轉彎的,因此我個人選擇是暫時不會急著去打第3劑,畢竟目前疫苗選擇非常少,總不可能去吃屎,然後4/22短期來講cdc還是有可能硬幹,所以屆時我會直接跟健身房解約,其實我預計到時會有非常多消費糾紛,不過我們這些小眾就是要利用這點去給予業者的壓力,進而轉化成政府的壓力,直接促使解封政策進一步的提早
要不要打疫苗是個人選擇,以上我只是覺得過不了多久就會解封(第3劑政策直接轉彎)的分析,要不要急於現在打疫苗,請大家自行判斷
-----
Sent from JPTT on my Samsung SM-G9860.
--
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健身
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